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Why Every Modern Political Poll is Indubitably WRONG!

By Ransom Riggs
MentalFloss.com
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I took an informal poll of my friends last week: “How many of you have landlines?” Out of a group of ten late-twentysomethings, four raised their hands. If they had been early-twentysomethings, I’m sure that number would’ve been lower still. But it wasn’t always this way: back during the initial internet boom of the mid-nineties, the online explosion actually proved a huge boon to wired telephony, with the number of lines rising nearly 24 percent from 142.4 million in 1992 to 186.6 million in 1999. But this was because so many people were using dial-up internet, and hooked up dedicated phone lines just so they could “chat with buddies” and “surf the web” on AOL, Compuserv, et al.

But since 2000, landline usage has dropped off the edge of the planet, back down to pre-1991 levels. Broadband killed dial-up, which in turn killed (well, hurt) landlines — nowadays a cell phone is considered a must-have by many, and conversely, a landline is considered an extra. (The only reason I have a landline in my house is because we have a security system, which requires a wired phone line to call the cops if someone tries to break in. I don’t know what’s more 20th century: the fact that my security system uses a landline, or the idea that criminals would rather steal stuff from me actually-physically rather than digitally-virtually.)

So far, I’m betting none of this is a surprise. Neither is the demographic breakdown of landline-vs.-cell userhood:
• 25% of people 18-25 don’t have a landline.
• Landline-havers tend to own their own homes, and tend to be older and less mobile (no pun intended).
• Cellphone-only folks are more likely to live in cities and rent their homes.

But here’s the thing that took me by surprise: even though as many as 16% of American households are cellphone-only (and possibly 25% by the end of this year), most pollsters don’t call cellphones. And that means every one of the Obama-vs.-McCain horserace statistics you’ll see over the next 6-8 weeks will be flawed.

There are a couple of reasons why pollsters usually don’t call cells: firstly, because they’re not allowed to use autodialers to do so; they’ve got to punch in your cell number by hand — and that’s more expensive. Also, cell users are harder to reach; they tend to ignore calls from unfamiliar numbers, might be driving or in the middle of something when they’re called, and because they’re often being charged by the minute, many aren’t willing to participate in lengthy telephone surveys…

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Remembering Tim Russert… We really need you right now, buddy.

I know I already posted this several months ago but still, I almost cry every time I see this. If you haven’t seen it yet, please watch it, and remember how important Tim Russert was to American news media and politics.

Bruce Springsteen – Thunder Road