From Wired.com…
As astonishing as Usain Bolt’s record-breaking 100-meter sprint was, his time of 9.69 seconds is nowhere near what biostatisticians predict is the natural limit for the human body.
But because he broke the mathematical model that had fit 100-meter record data for almost a century, Bolt’s incredible performance could reset how fast researchers believe humans ultimately can run.
“This trend seems to defy simple curve fitting,” wrote Tatsuo Tabata, director of the Institute for Data Evaluation and Analysis in Japan.
Statisticians have used a lower limit for 100-meter times of about 9.45 seconds, according to Tabata and other researchers. The exponential curve seen above — which is drawn from an equation calculated to fit the world record data — had been quite successful at predicting the steady progress of faster and faster 100-meter times. But Bolt’s recent string of world records was clearly not an expected event: The model didn’t predict a 9.69 until almost 2030…
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